Regarding polling: Rubio is showing an average of about 3+. He leads in Rasmuessen and DailyKos. In addition, wait until these polls reflect the political fallout of Crist’ independent status settling amongst voters (I doubt recent polls reflect this outbreak, given the public needs time to settle with such news).
- Rubio shows an averaged +8.5% spread in a latest Rubio v. Meek Polls
- Rubio shows a +7% lead in a Rubio v. Meek v. Crist Rasmussen Poll (about a 3% RCP average)
- Congress stands at an embarrassing 22.5% approval rating (70.5% disapproval) among RCP Poll Averages. Crist, with his clear rejection of former promises, clearly fits into this career-politician role.
In Rubio’s future will also be additional endorsements (such as Jeb), and increased cash-flow.
Rubio will continue to ride anti-congress sentiments, in which Crist plays the perfect nemesis (imagine the type of political commercials regarding the above video! That was just a month ago!). He will also run against an unpopular Nancy/Reid congress, in which he will paint Meek as.
Crist really made a stupid political move. I say this completely removed from partisan bias, and as a student of political sciences and a participant in campaigns. Independents just don’t win. This news will settle amongst Republicans and there will be a major backlash. Crist should have dropped out gracefully and campaigned with Rubio, to later run for another political office.
Individuals admitting to pollsters as being conservatives are on the rise. Obama’s popularity continues on a decline. Economy, though minimal signs of improvement, remains stagnant. The leadership of congress is proving incredibly unpopular (just look at Reid’s political fight-for-his-life). Stimulus, bailouts, spendings, etc., are unpopular with the public. Public is also expressing significantly high untrust of federal government.
With what I know of Rubio, he will campaign against this. Crist will become irrelevant when big donors end their fundings and the message settles among the populace (check three-way polling in about 1-2 months). It will be a Meek v. Rubio run, where Rubio will carry the public-sentiment advantage.
This is exactly why Crist will have no serious funding, nor have any shot what-so-ever of beating Meek and Rubio. With such an anti-career-politician mindset the public has, watch this and ponder their reaction:
There are my politic predictions.